{"id":25004,"date":"2018-02-09T09:29:14","date_gmt":"2018-02-09T03:59:14","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.icmarkets.com\/blog\/?p=25004"},"modified":"2018-02-09T09:29:14","modified_gmt":"2018-02-09T03:59:14","slug":"friday-9th-february-technical-outlook-and-review","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/icm-cn-asia.com\/blog\/friday-9th-february-technical-outlook-and-review\/","title":{"rendered":"Friday 9th February: Technical outlook and review"},"content":{"rendered":"

\n\tEUR\/USD:<\/strong> \u202f 
\n<\/h4>\n

\n\tFor the most part, Thursday’s session exhibited a somewhat directionless tone. As can be seen from the H4 timeframe, the candles spent the day fluctuating between H4 support marked with a green circle at 1.2220ish and the 1.23 handle.\n<\/p>\n

\n\tDirectly above 1.23 look out for a H4 channel support-turned resistance taken from the low 1.2336, whereas below 1.2220 we have a nice-looking H4 Quasimodo positioned at 1.2195. Notice that the Quasimodo also brings together a H4 trendline support extended from the low 1.1736 and the 1.22 handle.\n<\/p>\n

\n\tMeanwhile, over on the bigger picture we can see that weekly sellers are making their presence felt from weekly supply marked at 1.2569-1.2287. Continued selling from this point could lead to price action challenging the weekly support at 1.2044, followed closely by the 2018 yearly opening line at 1.2004. On the other side of the coin, however, daily price is currently seen shaking hands with the top edge of a daily support area printed at 1.2246-1.2164 formed back in late 2014.<\/em>\n<\/p>\n

\n\tPotential trading zones:\n<\/p>\n

\n\tThe H4 Quasimodo support has ‘bounce’ written all over it this morning. Apart from it merging with the noted H4 support structures, there are likely a truckload of stop-loss orders lurking beneath the 1.2220 H4 support (green circle mentioned above) that when filled  will become sell orders, and therefore provide liquidity for traders to lift prices from the 1.2195 neighborhood.  One final point worth addressing is that the H4 Quasimodo is also seen plotted within the lower limits of the aforementioned daily support area, thus adding weight to the H4 levels.\n<\/p>\n

\n\tThe only grumble to entering long this market, as you can probably imagine, is the fact that weekly price is trading southbound, hence why we are only expecting a bounce at the highlighted supports.\n<\/p>\n

\n\tData points to consider:  No high-impacting events on the docket today.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t\"EUR09-02\"<\/a>\n<\/p>\n

\n\tAreas worthy of attention:                        \n<\/p>\n

\n\tSupports: 1.2195; H4 trendline support; 1.22 handle; 1.2220; 1.2246-1.2164; 1.2044; 1.2004.\n<\/p>\n

\n\tResistances: 1.2569-1.2287; 1.2359; H4 channel resistance; 1.23 handle.\n<\/p>\n

\n\tGBP\/USD: <\/strong>\u202f
\n<\/h4>\n

\n\tAmid European trade on ‘Super Thursday’, the British pound strengthened in aggressive fashion and touched a session high of 1.4063. This followed the BoE’s monetary policy decision (interest rates left unchanged) and BoE Gov. Carney’s speech.\n<\/p>\n

\n\tDespite the strong bout of buying, though, the unit swiftly gave up its BoE-inspired gains during the US segment, aggressively dropping down as far as the 1.39 handle.\n<\/p>\n

\n\tThe technical picture on the weekly timeframe shows us that weekly movement has the room to press as low as the weekly support level coming in at 1.3683. The daily timeframe, on the other hand, reveals that daily support at 1.3878 remains in motion. This level also brings together a daily AB=CD (see black arrows) 127.2% correction point at 1.3883 and a 38.2% daily Fib support at 1.3849. Therefore, although weekly price shows little support nearby, the sellers may still have their work cut out for them should they intend on hunting lower prices today.\n<\/p>\n

\n\tPotential trading zones:\n<\/p>\n

\n\tDespite cable ranging more than 200 pips yesterday, there is little change seen to the overall structure of this market. As a result, we still feel that neither a long nor shorts seems attractive at this time.\n<\/p>\n

\n\tNot only do we have conflicting opinions coming in from the higher timeframes, we also, in our technical opinion, have limited trade confluence seen on the H4 scale.\n<\/p>\n

\n\tData points to consider: UK manufacturing production m\/m and Goods trade balance at 9.30am; MPC member Cunliffe speaks at 4.45pm GMT.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t\"GBP09-02\"<\/a>\n<\/p>\n

\n\tAreas worthy of attention:\n<\/p>\n

\n\tSupports: 1.3878; 1.3883; 1.3849; 1.3683; 1.39 handle.\n<\/p>\n

\n\tResistances: 1.40 handle. \n<\/p>\n

\n\tAUD\/USD:<\/strong> \u202f 
\n<\/h4>\n

\n\tSince the commodity-linked currency peaked at 0.8135 on Jan 26, the Aussie has suffered consecutive daily losses.\n<\/p>\n

\n\tIn early trading on Thursday, the pair took a hit following less-than-stellar Chinese trade balance data. After driving through the 0.78 handle, the day ended with price bottoming around the top edge of a H4 demand base drawn from 0.7762-0.7779, which, as you can see, is holding firm at this time.\n<\/p>\n

\n\tWeekly flow marginally surpassed the 2018 yearly opening level at 0.7801, but remains far too early to tell whether bids have dried up here yet. On the daily timeframe, demand at 0.7807-0.7841 was taken out during yesterday’s downside move (now acting resistance area), consequently exposing a daily support level penciled in at 0.7732.\n<\/p>\n

\n\tPotential trading zones:\n<\/p>\n

\n\tDespite the response seen from the current H4 demand, this is not a buyers’ market. Yes, the 2018 yearly opening level may still contain active buyers, but with the 0.78 handle, a H4 resistance at 0.7812 and the daily resistance area mentioned above at 0.7807-0.7841 potentially hindering upside, we’d avoid entering into any buy transactions for now.\n<\/p>\n

\n\tHow about a short beyond the current H4 demand? This could be a viable approach as long as you remain cognizant of the nearby daily support level plotted at 0.7732. Between these two levels one has 30 or so pips to play with. So not really a lot to work with here!\n<\/p>\n

\n\tData points to consider: RBA monetary policy statement at 12.30am; Chinese inflation figures at 1.30am GMT.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t\"AUD09-02\"<\/a>\n<\/p>\n

\n\tAreas worthy of attention:\n<\/p>\n

\n\tSupports: 0.7762-0.7779; 0.7732; 0.7801.  \n<\/p>\n

\n\tResistances: 0.78 handle; 0.7812; 0.7807-0.7841.\n<\/p>\n

\n\tUSD\/JPY:<\/strong> \u202f 
\n<\/h4>\n

\n\tFailing to sustain gains above the H4 mid-level resistance at 109.50, the USD\/JPY aggressively turned to the downside amid yesterday’s US session on a bout of risk aversion. Following the Dow Jones Industrial Average, which ended the day down 4.15%, the pair concluded trade closing just ahead of a H4 mid-level support at 108.50, down 0.55%.\n<\/p>\n

\n\tIn recent hours, H4 price struck the 108.50 base and has so far responded positively, bringing the unit up to within striking distance of the 109 handle.\n<\/p>\n

\n\tWeekly price continues to float ahead of a weekly trendline support etched from the low 98.78 and a nearby weekly support area coming in at 105.19-107.54.  Daily price, at the time of writing, is seen shaking hands with a daily support level at 108.78. Should this level fail to hold, there’s another layer of support seen just below it at 108.26 in the form of a daily Quasimodo.\n<\/p>\n

\n\tPotential trading zones:\n<\/p>\n

\n\tIn a nutshell, this is what we have to work with right now:\n<\/p>\n